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Testing · 1 min read

Estimating 1RM without testing it

When an estimated max is good enough, how the Epley formula works, and why sets of 2–5 reps give the most reliable estimates.

Testing a true one-rep max takes a full session, carries some risk, and needs an athlete who is technically ready for a maximal attempt. For most training decisions you do not need it. A good estimate from a heavy set of a few reps is close enough, and you get one every time the athlete trains.

The Epley formula

The most widely used estimate is Epley’s:

e1RM = load × (1 + reps ÷ 30)

So 100 kg for 5 reps gives about 117 kg, and 140 kg for 3 reps gives 154 kg. Turned around, it also tells you what percentage of 1RM a given rep max corresponds to:

  • 2 reps ≈ 94% of 1RM
  • 3 reps ≈ 91%
  • 4 reps ≈ 88%
  • 5 reps ≈ 86%
  • 10 reps ≈ 75%

Why 2–5 reps

Every formula is fitted to average lifters, and the further a set is from one rep, the more individual differences take over. Some athletes can do 15 reps at 70%; others manage 8. Sets of 2 to 5 reps are heavy enough that the estimate stays close to the real thing for most athletes and most lifts.

Getting a useful estimate

  • Use sets taken close to failure (around RPE 9 or above). A set of 5 with three reps left in the tank underestimates the max.
  • Use the same lift with the same technique standard every time. A paused squat and a touch-and-go squat are different lifts.
  • Follow the trend, not one number. A single estimate is noisy; five weeks of estimates show a direction.
  • Test a true 1RM when it actually matters: before a competition or at the end of a strength block.

PeakPlan calculates e1RM automatically from the heaviest completed set of 2 to 5 reps in each session, using the Epley formula, and charts it next to tested 1RMs on each athlete’s Performance tab.